Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.433930 0.505100 0.582016 0.671046 0.770973 0.879379 1.005583
2025-04-13 0.316424 0.405414 0.509019 0.637536 0.791590 0.969201 1.188258
2025-04-20 0.246050 0.345781 0.470364 0.635055 0.844422 1.098936 1.428638
2025-04-27 0.187832 0.290555 0.428429 0.622551 0.883741 1.217506 1.669918
2025-05-04 0.147245 0.251016 0.400599 0.624436 0.942140 1.367226 1.967505
2025-05-11 0.114455 0.215878 0.373119 0.623078 0.996697 1.518874 2.284922
2025-05-18 0.082633 0.174621 0.329129 0.591138 1.004477 1.608460 2.529085
2025-05-25 0.057686 0.138068 0.285155 0.551866 0.996191 1.674679 2.748073
2025-06-01 0.042956 0.116084 0.261247 0.541243 1.031136 1.808812 3.079497
2025-06-08 0.031514 0.096905 0.238131 0.528002 1.060199 1.937266 3.415017
2025-06-15 0.025139 0.086988 0.230988 0.542899 1.139425 2.153671 3.906259
2025-06-22 0.017556 0.070555 0.205911 0.518617 1.145955 2.251636 4.217913
2025-06-29 0.012492 0.058811 0.188842 0.509058 1.181904 2.409073 4.651096
2025-07-06 0.008548 0.048010 0.170645 0.493424 1.204370 2.546181 5.063897
2025-07-13 0.006366 0.042018 0.163190 0.500776 1.274219 2.775717 5.654890
2025-07-20 0.004500 0.035674 0.152517 0.498303 1.323685 2.973025 6.206167
2025-07-27 0.003309 0.031352 0.146509 0.506499 1.397721 3.224417 6.874502
2025-08-03 0.002368 0.027243 0.139601 0.510942 1.464325 3.467882 7.546925
2025-08-10 0.001442 0.021570 0.124326 0.488333 1.465350 3.581327 7.986399
2025-08-17 0.000801 0.016447 0.108131 0.458378 1.443912 3.646631 8.339356
2025-08-24 0.000500 0.013660 0.100283 0.452222 1.480571 3.836691 8.947364
2025-08-31 0.000295 0.011182 0.092255 0.443240 1.508655 4.010888 9.536041
2025-09-07 0.000207 0.010145 0.091170 0.458243 1.602777 4.337548 10.450945